Speaker:

Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Faculty Member, Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Title:

Why Incarcerating Cartel Members has not Worked to Reduce their Violence

Abstract:

Organised crime cartels must largely be analysed as black boxes because direct observation is rarely possible, and available evidence consists mostly of imperfect proxies and very limited data. I will present complex systems models to quantify recruitment and incarceration to analyse the effect of organised criminals in Mexico. The results suggest that incarcerating cartel members has minor effects on reducing cartel violence, even with harsher punishment or longer sentences.

Speaker Bio:

Rafael Prieto-Curiel is a Faculty Member at the Complexity Science Hub, working on violence, mobility, migration and urban dynamics. He works for the OECD and the World Bank, where he does a spatial and demographic analysis of cities. He is the Scientific Advisor of Aleph.

He was awarded the “Science Breakthrough” award by the Falling Walls Foundation in 2024.

Before, he was at the Mathematical Institute of the University of Oxford / UCL CASA, working on urban dynamics at the Peak Urban project. He earned an MSc in Statistics and a PhD in Maths and Security and Crime at University College London (UCL).

He worked in the Emergency Attention Centre from Mexico City (C5) as Director of Strategic Analysis. His work consisted basically of crime forecasting and police and resource allocation.

Rafael is very interested in science communication. When he was an undergraduate student, he directed Laberintos e Infinitos, a maths magazine. When he started his PhD at UCL, he founded Chalkdust, a mathematics magazine. He also founded Punto Decimal MX, a science communication website. In total, he has published 11 editions of a maths magazine, with nearly 30,000 printed copies and edited nearly 500 articles by more than 200 authors.

Location:

In person: Chambers Hall, 600 Foster Street, Lower Level
Remote option: https://northwestern.zoom.us/j/94858847147

About the Speaker Series:

Wednesdays@NICO is a vibrant weekly seminar series focusing broadly on the topics of complex systems, networks, and artificial intelligence. It brings together attendees ranging from graduate students to senior faculty who span all of the schools across Northwestern, from applied math to sociology to biology and every discipline in-between. Please visit: https://bit.ly/WedatNICO for information on future speakers.

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