Speaker:

Yian Yin, Assistant Professor of Information Science, Cornell University

Title:

Understanding the punctuated dynamics of scientific and technological frontiers

Abstract:

The basic laws governing scientific and technological frontiers are critically important for economic growth and for our society more generally. Our quantitative understanding of these laws, however, remains limited. In order to shed light on the general empirical patterns in the evolution of these frontiers over time, we collect novel data that track the dynamics of more than 6.1M solutions to 5.8K tasks across diverse areas in science and technology–including data science, artificial intelligence, theoretical computer science , biomedical sciences, and physical wheel building. We find that, in contrast to the predictions of canonical models of chance and learning, the evolution of the knowledge frontier is characterized by a correlated bursty dynamic punctuated by intervals of long stasis. This pattern presents an intriguing co-existence of rapid progression and prolonged stagnation. Building on the rich literature in record statistics, economics of innovation, and cumulative cultural evolution, we develop a one-parameter mathematical framework that highlights a combination of incremental and radical innovations. Despite its simplicity, the model naturally explains all key empirical patterns across a wide range of conditions. This model of incremental and radical innovations also makes new predictions for individual and environmental factors that go beyond the current measurements, each of which is supported by our empirical data. Together, these results offer a new quantitative framework to understand and predict future advances in science and technology. They not only hold important lessons for innovators and innovation policymakers, but also have significant implications for other deep, complex social systems.

Speaker Bio:

Yian Yin is an assistant professor of information science at Cornell University. His research applies and develops novel computational tools to understand how individual, social, and environmental processes independently and jointly promote (or inhibit) scientific progress and innovation achievements. As a computational social scientist, he has also used science and innovation as a powerful lens to examine broader processes and outcomes in a wide range of complex social processes, from artistic and cultural productions to public policy, from media attention to market competition to human conflict. Yian received his Ph.D. in Industrial Engineering and Management Science at Northwestern University, with research affiliations at Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems and Kellogg Center for Science of Science and Innovation.

Location:

In person: Chambers Hall, 600 Foster Street, Lower Level
Remote option: https://northwestern.zoom.us/j/91574900792
Passcode: NICO2023

About the Speaker Series:

Wednesdays@NICO is a vibrant weekly seminar series focusing broadly on the topics of complex systems and data science. It brings together attendees ranging from graduate students to senior faculty who span all of the schools across Northwestern, from applied math to sociology to biology and every discipline in-between. Please visit: https://bit.ly/WedatNICO for information on future speakers.

Related Info