Events
Past Event
WED@NICO SEMINAR: Samuel Scarpino, University of Vermont "On the Predictability of Infectious Disease Outbreaks"
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
12:00 PM
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Lower Level Chambers Hall
Details
Title:
On the Predictability of Infectious Disease Outbreaks
Speaker:
Samuel Scarpino - Assistant Professor of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Vermont
Talk Abstract:
Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex systems approach to modeling. Recent studies have demonstrated that predicting different components of outbreaks is feasible. Therefore, advancing both the science and practice of disease forecasting now requires testing for the presence of fundamental limits to outbreak prediction. To investigate the question of outbreak prediction, we study the information theoretic limits to forecasting across a broad set of infectious diseases using permutation entropy as a model independent measure of predictability. Studying the predictability of a diverse collection of historical outbreaks we identify a fundamental entropy barrier for infectious disease time series forecasting. However, we find that for most diseases this barrier to prediction is often well beyond the time scale of single outbreaks, implying prediction is likely to succeed. We also find that the forecast horizon varies by disease and demonstrate that both shifting model structures and social network heterogeneity are the most likely mechanisms for the observed differences in predictability across contagions. Our results highlight the importance of moving beyond time series forecasting, by embracing dynamic modeling approaches to prediction and suggest challenges for performing model selection across long disease time series. We further anticipate that our findings will contribute to the rapidly growing field of epidemiological forecasting and may relate more broadly to the predictability of complex adaptive systems.
Live Stream:
To join the Meeting: bluejeans.com/8474912527
To join via Browser: bluejeans.com/8474912527/browser
Time
Wednesday, May 24, 2017 at 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
Location
Lower Level Chambers Hall Map
Contact
Calendar
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
Fall 2026 Classes Begin
University Academic Calendar
All Day
Details
Fall 2026 Classes Begin
Time
Wednesday, September 23, 2026
Contact
Calendar
University Academic Calendar
NICO Reading Group - Fall 2026 First Meeting
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
6:00 PM
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Chambers Hall
Details
The NICO Reading Group meets for the first this fall on Wednesday, September 23, 2026. Please contact Jaeseon Ha if you are interested in joining our group.
About:
The NICO Reading Group brings together people across disciplines to read and discuss important ideas in modern AI. We focus on topics such as AI agents, tuning, harnesses, evaluation, AI for scientific discovery, and applications of AI across different fields. The goal is to understand important ideas in AI more deeply by learning and thinking across disciplines.
Leadership:
Jaeseon Ha, a Kellogg MBA + AI student, will lead the reading group during the Fall 2026 term. Please contact Jaeseon with any questions or reach out to us at nico@northwestern.edu.
Meeting Times:
Date: Biweekly on Wednesday evening, starting on September 23, 2026
Time: 6-7pm
Location: NICO main office, Chambers Hall,
600 Foster St, Evanston, IL 60208
Time
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 6:00 PM - 7:00 PM
Location
Chambers Hall Map
Contact
Calendar
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
WED@NICO Seminar Series returns on September 30, 2026
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)
12:00 PM
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Lower Level, Chambers Hall
Details
The Wednesdays@NICO seminar series returns September 30, 2026, running through November 11, 2026, with the following speakers.
9/30/2026 - Luis Amaral, Northwestern University
10/7/2026 - Kristina Lerman, Indiana University
10/14/2026 - Tim Tangherlini, University of California, Berkeley
10/21/2026 - Andreia Sofia Teixeira, Northeastern University London
10/28/2026 - Rafael Prieto-Curiel, Complexity Science Hub, Vienna
11/4/2026 - Hamsa Bastani, University of Pennsylvania
11/11/2026 - Mayank Agrawal, Proof of Human
We will share detailed speaker information, talk titles and abstracts, in the coming weeks.
Location:
In person: Chambers Hall, 600 Foster Street, Lower Level
Remote option TBA
About the Speaker Series:
Wednesdays@NICO is a vibrant weekly seminar series focusing broadly on the topics of complex systems, networks, and artificial intelligence. It brings together attendees ranging from graduate students to senior faculty who span all of the schools across Northwestern, from applied math to sociology to biology and every discipline in-between. Please visit: https://bit.ly/WedatNICO for information on future speakers.
Time
Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM
Location
Lower Level, Chambers Hall Map
Contact
Calendar
Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems (NICO)